tv Whatd You Miss Bloomberg March 1, 2017 3:30pm-5:01pm EST
to be them it sets approved at next week's eu summit. it says the eu remains committed to a robust trade policy and multilateral trade system. the united nations panel says the evacuation of eastern aleppo in december after months of siege and aerial bombardment i russian and syrian forces, the commission issued a report today looking at violations of all parties in the final chapter four aleppo. with syrian warplanes come it targeted a humanitarian aid convoy. a federal judge in california agreed to release the widow of a people at killed 49 or -- and orlando fight club. it is not a flight risk or a danger to public safety.
a new report predicts the superrich will keep heading to london, voting to leave the european union. $13 million or more living in london, rising 30% in the next decade. the report says -- new york city for thethe top spot altra risk. 127al news in over countries. --global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. ♪ scarlet: live, i'm scarlet fu. joe: i am joe weisenthal. scarlet: u.s. stocks are adding
to record highs despite a lack of details from president trump's speech last night. joe: the question is what did you miss? scarlet: the dow more than 300 20 $1000ross milestone. the s&p 500 reaching 400. light on details. president trump's's time speech to congress failing -- the of a treasure investment. a policy prescription. a nobel prize-winning economist sits down with us exclusively for a half-hour. joe: let's look at where the .ajor averages stands >> this is the best rally for major averages. well more than 1% as you can see, a string of new record highs here.
21,000, 19,000, 20,000 today. pretty impressive. 5096, and we have the dow in purple, the s&p 500, in white, we have the nasdaq. is ae 1990's, this frequent occurrence. we have simultaneous record high after simultaneous record high. averages really associated with the trump trade, the dow transports, these are all putting in record highs. it is a broad-based rally. the chief head of technical analysis -- there. he says it does confirm our
bullish view. thateadership and momentum it is an early cycle. time forstill investors. scarlet: we have breaking news. valeant shares are tumbling. possible violations, it started a formal investigation into that, looking into securities violations. the regular of session, valeant up by more than and $.15 per $13 share. we will keep you posted on a further development. president trump made his case for increased infrastructure spending. askident trump: i will congress to approve legislation that produces a $1 trillion
investment in infrastructure to the united states, financed through both public and private capital, creating millions of new jobs. budget promises 2% gdp growth. can get a way the u.s. to this level of growth? joining us now is paul krugman, the state which professor of economics, a nobel laureate and new york times op-ed columnist. great to have you back on the show. with the first question. 3% growth, is this a sustainable pace? >> we could get there if we get very lucky. if wonderful technology comes along, productivity surges for reasons we don't understand, but no, nothing a policy would raise the growth rate. you can make me total dictator into everything i believe would work and it would not get you up by more than a percentage point.
are saying the u.s. economy is already at its speed limit? >> probably close. they are suggesting an economy pretty close and the underlying sustainable pace of growth does not look like it is above 2% between an aging population labor force participation stagnating. see how youway to could get that growth. it just does not make sense. >> you have noted demographics to oneould limit growth percentage point lower than what we had under president reagan. >> that is right. back in the 1980's, still entering the workforce, now we are leaving, we also had a surge of women in the workforce, which peaked. an aging society. we're not quite japan where the working population is shrinking rapidly, but it is growing slowly. unless there is a productivity
miracle, nobody knows how to make that happen. go back to the idea of a big infrastructure spending boom. for a long time, you and others had called for that. putting aside a cyclical question of whether we are at full employment now, does it ake sense to do that from long-term productivity standpoint? in other words, spend a lot of money because we have more modern airports and roads and systems and everything that will raise productivity? >> yes. three reasons. there are clearly a lot of productive public investments to be made. the second thing is, despite the fact interest rates are going up a bit, they are incredibly low. when is a time to borrow if now is not? a little bit of stimulus would be helpful even though we are no longer in a deep slump. joe: i have a chart showing how little infrastructure we are
getting. looking at total spending, as a share of gdp, is there an opportunity for the trump lists to coalesce around a unified policy? >> you might have thought there was but you notice he did not say let's spend $1 trillion. he said let's have a plan. so if he actually provided a clean, let's spend one giant dollars in infrastructure, it would be hard for people like me to not before it. according to the wall street journal, the parent company of snapchat is set to price the ipo at $17 per share. it will take place after the market closes today here at it will be priced at $17 per share. the company had marketed it between $60 and $18 per share. another key component of trump's's ideology is his
restrictions on immigration. he said last night during his speech that restricting immigration particularly at the low skill level will boost wages. two questions. is there any evidence there is an effect on wages and what does total productive capacity going back again to the speed limit question if we curtail the pace of population? >> in principle, you would think immigration of low education workers would be pushing down wages to the bottom. it is amazingly hard to find any evidence that is true. it is something that ought to be true but there is a lot of evidence immigrant workers really for the most part do not compete with nativeborn workers. if there is in effect, it is really quite small. if you restrict the growth of the labor force, you will limit the growth of the economy. the idea you will simultaneously cut off and drastically excel or
a growth is wishful thinking. scarlet: in terms of what you a lot feasible, it is likely to happen. a get the economy at least to higher gear, what would be a policy prescription? >> a clean infrastructure plan. not just because we're not building up new infrastructure. to fullretty close employment. it will give us insurance. stronger base of commands. we will not reliable fed to keep us at unemployment. policy,immigration bringing in more and not less.
there is longer-term stuff. debtor education and better health care, not worse, which is what we will probably get. to growth.ontribute underlying economic growth as opposed to recovery from a recession, longer-term is a needle that is very hard to move. >> with that move the needle on gdp? >> try to find me any evidence besides just prejudice that says tax cuts are important right now. scarlet: further headlines from valeant. this is following headlines we filing thaturities the division is under investigating -- under
sumven if you are total democrats as well. used tothe proceeds are subsidize wages. making a tax break available to companies that hire domestic labor, they are not paying corporate into thumbtacks, we have the value added tax, including a border adjustment sales, if you will tax you also want to with foreign investors. domestica subsidy to labor. .t has been misunderstood it is about just changing the way we do -- wait -- the way we
tax corporations. the main thing is to reduce tax avoidance, maybe, to lead to a stronger dollar. that will push up the dollar. the effect on the trade valve -- balance will probably be minimal. it might improve tax collection and reduce the amount of distortion. joe: could it create more incentive for companies to create more in the u.s.? the essence of what trump has promised his voters. paul: it could but probably not. the reason we have trade weicits in manufacturing is are very good at selling services, service exports, you know, it everything always adds up one way or the other. sellingre successful at services, you will be less successful at selling manufactured goods. of people will bring money to invest in the u.s., it will mean a stronger dollar and
less competitive manufacturing. way to have a lot more manufacturing through trade is to convince people not to invest in america and buy our services. trump is making a start through instability. maybe he will do it through that route. >> donald trump himself is not completely sold. is there a simple way to entice more workershave at home that does not take us down the road of the dollar? paul: i think it is all misunderstood. unless you can figure out a way to have a smaller surplus on the financials account, then you cannot give me a smaller deficit on the current account. things have to add up. a misunderstanding to believe a lack of competitiveness is the reason the united states has lost manufacturing jobs. even to the extent trade is the cause, it has more to do with
capital flows than any of these things. joe: obviously one of the first things trump did was draw the u.s. from the ttp. what our long-term economic ramifications of the u.s. pulling back from its role in trade agreements? agreements a huge that actually stepping back. in the first case, it was not a lot that would happen. i just did not see, i did not really understand why the trade case was compelling. it was not the devil but not a great idea. to naftaginal changes and not a big deal. if you create an environment that is hostile and uncertain,
you can unravel why goebel's asian has taken place and you can talk about shorter supply change which i believe he has said, you start unraveling this and turning much more inwardly focused, which would make the world a bit poorer, extremely disruptive in the process, we have no idea. the amazing thing is there has been no substantive policy enemy front. i do not know what -- whether they are serious and what it means. scarlet: the white house seems to be turning its focus on enforcement rather than renegotiating trade deals. let's listen to what kevin was told. of makings not a lot trade deals if you do not enforce them. everybody. specifically with china, what are you looking to do? when can we anticipate that?
>> as soon as we have a proper case. >> no details there. >> he would not say what they would get tough about. it is a misconception. subsidize when they should not, and they are really bad. is that really an important part of the story of what is happening in america? it is not. in trump world, other people, it has to be a story. that is all going on. >> that is win-win for both sides. know who the two sides rp the u.s. as a whole, probably not. maybe trump can say is a victory while they can say what they are doing. a win-win in this case. the idea that we are being taken advantage of by trade deals is not true. it is basically a false narrative.
>> my political forecasts in europe has been consistently wrong. my economic analysis has been good i think. the economics have worked pretty well. the euro has not worked well at all but the political code vision of the euro has been incredibly strong. european elites have been determined to defend this thing even at the cost of depression levels in places like greece. if the elites lose control, the whole thing blows apart and until now, it has been amazing how robust it has been. happent know what will at this point. you have to put significant weight, a significant probability, on the whole thing blowing apart. >> is therein economic benefit to the u.s. if the euro
collapses? paul: no. there end, the idea that is competition with currencies is really nonsense. europe is a trading partner. thatrope goes to hell, will wash back on us. it is not a good thing. mentioned president le pen. i don't know if you are totally tongue-in-cheek or whatever. let's say she wins and starts to raise a real possibility of redenominate in the french thennment into frank and they say what will happen to the how seriousrnment, a problem with that be for the global economy? will bee short run, it very disruptive. a euro about to collapse, interest rates would be shooting craziesave had several and they were contractionary for europe. collapsed, we have a
go frank and things might back to normal. the idea that it is a permanent drag on the world economy -- >> financial crisis due to financial banks owning? >> there might be, a lot of winners and losers. they might oh money to other people. it would be quite crazy. the mechanics of breaking up currency are very hard and could do a lot in the short run. scarlet: what will be the catalyst for the euro to fall apart? paul: if there is a clear anti-euro in one of the then theycountries, may -- may force the hand. even if she wants to wait a couple of years, she may not .ave that luxury something will have to be done. capital controls right away and
from the closing bell. the dow jones topping 21,000 for the first time, confident the fed will hike rates. i am scarlet fu. joe: i am joe weisenthal. "what'd you miss?" thank you for tuning in live on twitter. we want to welcome you to our coverage. scarlet: record highs all around for the dow, the s&p, and nasdaq finishing just off the highs at 3:00 p.m., the final hour drifting lower. rising, the biggest gain of the year, and lots of economic data. market wouldd the selloff off if there were no details. everyone was wrong again. scarlet: in terms of the sectors moving, what did not move higher is the better question.
all getting a big boost. saw all members higher. one stock worth mentioning is s, the biggest gain since november 2008. fourth-quarter profit and sales beat estimates, so reinforces that optimistic picture home depot painted. higherpot projected property values will keep the home improvement sector strong. shares proven by lowe's today. joe: the bond market, yields higher come along end and short in the short end dictated by fed policy, which moved a lot the last 2-3 days with fed speakers putting march in play. lifting 10nce today
year yields, back in the center of the range. i want to bring up a chart of six-month yields. this is a 10 year chart of six-month yields. that is at the highest level , noe 2008, incredibly low were close to the old days if you consider that normal. those are super sensitive to near-term fed expectations. the dollar rally back on thanks to rising expectations the fed will raise rates on march 15. climbed above 114 for then camet gain, back down. the mexican peso an interesting mover, stronger for the most part. this comes on the heels of the
meeting with stephen mnuchin on monday, reportedly janet yellen as well, but that report has been denied. definitely something to watch. let's look at commodities. not much happening on oil and gold today. bit, the safettle haven selloff. aluminum had a good day, reports china is curbing production to deal with pollution, so perhaps a supply cut coming. taking: perhaps china the lead and pollution controlling. those are today's market minutes. we want to take a deep dive in our bloomberg. here is one metric i am paying attention to. ism manufacturing
report from the headline number was better than expected. 42% of factory purchasing managers of said orders were better than february come up than january at 32%, so a big move. , there you go,l that shows 26% of purchasing managers are reporting rising order backlogs the highest since may 2015, a sign production will accelerate. the data is looking pretty good then. i have a chart that speaks to the same phenomenon of the data. a bloomberg strategist sent this chart around earlier, saying this chart is so sexy it is not safe for work. it is the combined citigroup
global economic and inflation surprise indices. measuresee the combined is surging. this chart goes back to the beginning of 2003. we can see things are going through the roof. we are in this extraordinary data andere growth inflation data is better than expected. pretty impressive move to start 2017. scarlet: these are not the exact levels? relative to expectations. the data is better than expected everywhere and in every category. won't move their forecasts, estimates. revertingould be mean , but they can't catch up. "what'd you miss?" industrial closing above 21,000 for the first time lessstory despite trump's
than detailed address. so what is fueling the optimism? our guest.nswers is what has everyone so excited? brought the bond guy in today. joe: you can make fun of them. >> the market reaction is quite sensible. you talked about the surprise atex, but if we looked nominal growth expectations, our expectations for the u.s., we expect the u.s. real growth will be close to 3%, and inflation close to 3%, so we have not talked about those types of nominal growth numbers for some time. just broughtrt i up, growth, inflation, gdp, earnings look better -- >> then you have to ask yourself
what is the fed doing with the fed funds rate. with the market is trying to do is react to that. of theu show the chart change on the two-year note and the 10-year note, the curve is steepening. typically if the market was overly concerned that the fed would be going too fast, the curve would be flattening. that is not what is happening. i think all of this is frankly quite understandable. scarlet: where does that mean we are in the credit cycle, the end of it, cresting? >> when we manage fixed income portfolios, there are two bank cycles we care a lot about, the interest rate cycle and the credit cycle. are fairlythose two unlined. this is a different situation because the alignment of those hasis off, because the fed been so aggressive for so long, even though the corporate sector was not in trouble, so the
corporate sector has extended out the curve in terms of how long are we into the credit cycle, and that is unusual to be that long in the credit cycle when we are just starting the economic cycle. joe: i have a chart on the bloomberg, the 2-10 spread. after yesterday when we got that hawkish testimony putting march into play. , we erasedl reversal that steepening again today. this is a three day chart. fortill pretty steep levels that curve. we are around the 120 level. i think that is a good sign. for us, if the things we are watching to understand whether or not the fed by tightening might choke off this rally and risk assets, we are watching the shape of the yield curve here, so again, if the market thinks
the fed is being overly aggressive, that will flatten the curve. that is not happening. the other thing we are watching our commodity prices doing well. when we think about inflationary expectations globally, we are the situation where inflation is the only game in of theymore, and yet two central banks cueing it up quickly. joe: after trump won the election, there was talk about a handoff of monetary policy to fiscal policy, and this question big bull market in bonds that has gone on for decades is under threat, a real shift. how do you see the long-term outlook? many people talk about the bond market as it is one
thing. there are interest rates. joe: i'm talking about long-term interest rates. >> we would be fooling ourselves if we thought the return we saw over the last 30 years on average would be the same return over the next 30 years, but a bear market, most people think about that with an equity context. bear markets and equities are a 50% drop. in bonds come the aggregate index was less than 3%, and the next year was 11%. on our need to focus return expectations. with the yield component being that much lower than it has been on average, we should expect lower returns, because yields are lower and that is the bulk of the makeup of your return. we should expect lower returns in the future. it does not mean you sell all your bonds.
to thething bad happens stock market, high yields, emerging markets, than you want that stability portion of your portfolio. scarlet: you might want to diversify from u.s. bond exposure. >> you diversify in the credit markets and your economic cycles, see you go global. , our bestnvestors recommendation is going global for your risk mitigated bonds being done on a hedge to basis. in times of uncertainty, people rush to buy the dollar. you want that core part of your portfolio to benefit from that flight to quality. thank you so much for joining us today. some breaking news, box has reported results, fourth-quarter revenue 100 done million dollars, higher than anticipated -- 109 million dollars, higher
than anticipated. analysts had been anticipating a loss of $.13, the stock down 2% after its outlook for the first quarter trailed analysts' estimates. shake shack matching estimates, down 1.7 percent even after it boosted its full-year revenue forecast and reaffirmed its full-year comparable forecast. it did boosted the same store sales forecast. shake shack bouncing around a bit there. this is bloomberg. ♪
$17 each, ahead of the expected $14 to $16. the snap ipo is 10 times oversubscribed, so $17 a share base the company of $24 billion. now let's get to first word news with mark crumpton. lords has's house of passed a briggs of bill amendment that would guarantee the rights of european union citizens living in the u.k. was 358-256, the outcome the first parliamentary defeat for prime minister theresa may's government. be bindinge may not because the bill goes back to the house of commons, where there is a chance the amendment could be overturned. president trump says he and top congressional republicans are meeting to "start the process." there was a comment during his
agenda during a lunch with paul ryan. and others. the meeting followed the first address to congress last night by the president. the speech was well received by republicans. as to trump called for replacement of the affordable care act as well as a significant boost in military spending among other initiatives. beeker reinke called the address "a home run." president trump has chosen the longtime donor to republican campaigns, including his own, as ambassador to canada, according to a person familiar with the batter. he will oversee the relationship with the second-biggest u.s. trading partner after china, and would probably play a role as the u.s. seeks to renegotiate nafta. golf's two govern bodies released a draft of rules to
help simplify at what some consider a complicated's war. they spent more than two years reworking the rulebooks without skipping the centuries old game of traditions and fundamentals of fair play. the mostd to be comprehensive overhaul since the first set of rules was published in 1744. the proposal now faces six months of public feedback. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. i am mark crumpton. joe: "what'd you miss?" call it a case of the young and restless, check out this chart. youngs the spread between people's economic optimism, people under 35, and people over 55, their economic optimism.
2016, there was a huge gap, young people were so much more optimistic about the economy than people 55 or older, then something happened that older people really liked in early november, and there has been a massive switch then and optimism has changed dramatically, a real flattening, older people feeling good these days. i don't know what it was, something in politics. scarlet: older people don't have to work for the next 50 years. joe: i'm next guest says there has been a reversal and republican confidence with the gop feeling optimistic and the democrats and doubt. -- in doubt. he joins us now from virginia. fascinating to watch these mood shifts before
and after political events like the election, but what do they mean? aople change what they tell pollster, but does this have ramifications on the real economy or market? >> it only has ramifications to the extent they canned translate that confidence into action. i have my doubts. in 2008 whene that democrat confidence soared after obama was elected, and it is not clear the same thing will happen here. all those elderly folks you talked about, many of them are still worried about retirement, and just in general, the elderly don't buy as much as the young, theyile it is good news feel better, the question is will they turn that into real action to move the economy. might feel better. you could call it economic optimism, but is a confidence or relief? relief. that is a great distinction.
relief is something that happens in response to something, reaction that tends to be short-lived. confidence is a different element behaviorally. it takes time to establish, gets tested and retested, and that is one of the vulnerabilities for the new administration, this tent revival sense of relief has not been tested. joe: i'm sure if you ask the l respondents, they might articulate something, but in general do people assess a situation then say i feel good , or do they feel a certain way then supply the argument in retrospect? thearratives always follow experience. we have to put some sort of story around why we feel the way typically the reaction occurs, then we have to find something to justify the
reaction, and in this case, the election provides a powerful story for people to hold onto. will be whether that narrative can hold true. the trump trade, that whole story is based on expectations in the future of fiscal stimulus, tax benefit changes, and those are not yet tested. scarlet: this post-election search among older republicans, more so than younger ones, it follows a period during which come all despond and during the obama years, so could this the a reversion to the mean? rebound, and is a to bring things to note with that weird the first is that as confidence experiences that sense of relief -- with that. as confidenceg is
experiences the sense of relief, it is difficult to translate that into real economic growth. the hard-hitabout communities in the united states, they are not set up to spontaneously turn around and grow. there are a number of associated the opioid crisis for example, a consistent symptom in these communities. at the same time, democrats feel worse than they did. the danger for the new administration is that it is much easier for democrats to cut back on their spending and to stop investing than it is for the chronically under-confident republicans to turn around and restore growth in exchange, so the danger is we have a reversal that is quick and a growth rate underlying it that will be much slower to build. joe: let's talk about the market. from the theoretical standpoint,
how do you use this data to perhaps call turns in the market? as a follow-up on a practical matter, what are the signs saying now about the level of exuberance out there and what is it to you about where we are in the market cycle? >> these figures tell us very little about market exuberance. last eight the years, economic confidence has indicator relative to the dow or s&p, and one of the things we have seen is that there is an enormous disconnect between valuation and the sentiment you would expect with that with main street confidence, and that is one of the things that was seriously exposed in the election, because people were feeling great in terms of markets, but main street has a different message with the election of trump. , the important piece of this is that it is
still setting up the potential for political surprises. we now have democrats feeling considerably worse. feel better,ans but will they be able to implement changes, and will that sense of relief and hopefulness turn into real growth? that remains to be seen. what we are also seeing is very hting in index products, so this is a market driven largely by passive investing, and that is not a great statement of underlying animal spirits. this is people behaving cautiously because they want something that is inexpensive and requires that time the markets. joe: we have to run. thank you very much. always fascinating conversation.
recap on thet a markets, huge surge for the major indices, the pundits and everyone fooled again. they all said the market would sell off if there were no details. we got one of the biggest rallies in a long time. scarlet: biggest rally so far this year, above 21,000 for the dow, record highs all around. coming up next, a shakeup at bridgewater, the latest and the
crumpton, first word news. the trump administration outlining a new trade agenda that promises to root out unfair practices by other countries. according to a document obtained by bloomberg, the office of the u.s. trade representative said the united states plans to defend its national sovereignty over trade policy and goes on to say under the terms of its entry into the world trade organization that the u.s. did not abandon its trade rights and is not bound by decisions made at the wto. the senate has given its initial approval to dr. ben carson, president trumps choice to lead hud.
mr. carson, once trumps rival, cleared a preliminary hurdle on a bipartisan 62-30 seven vote. the actual confirmation vote could come tomorrow. the senate confirmed ryan -- as secretary of the interior , putting the self-described teddy roosevelt republican in charge of making decisions about where and when to mind public lands. department is set to prioritize coal, oil, and natural gas development. embattled french president toured a fairon today considered a critical stop for candidates in the election. fillon visited the farm just hours after he pledged to remain in the race.
voters should decide france's next president, not a legal procedure. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. i am mark crumpton. scarlet: thank you so much. "what'd you miss?" wells fargo warning that a deeper review may uncover more bogus accounts. authorities had find wells fargo $185 million for opening 2 million accounts without customer approval. we have the details. the bank thought it put this behind it, perhaps not? the 10kis coming out in wells fargo put out today. they say we are expanding our timeline we are looking at these accounts and reformulating the way we discovered them to begin with. they had a big data dump and looked at all these things. we may have underestimated the
2.1 million accounts and find there were more possibly affected. joe: do we have any indication of the scale, and included increase more fines for the company if it shows there are more of them? >> that is a good question. it seems unlikely they would find the bank once more, but the caveat to that being the bank itself is the one that had the original timeline for these things, back to 2011, now going back to 2009, so i don't know if there will be more fines for but wells fargo has not said that. will pay morewe if we need to rectify the situation with customers. scarlet: it cost to the cfo his job as well, -- the ceo. what do you know about who else
is being held accountable for that episode? >> before this today, we learned that there are eight executives that wells fargo is holding accountable. there will be no cash bonus for any of these eight, the management committee, among the most important people at wells fargo. people who oversees some business lines, other corporate executives as well. joe: wells fargo had one of the best reputations of any bank going into this scandal, then took a hit. where does it stand today? are people still opening accounts there? >> the bank has then telling us that exact question, who is coming back, who is leaving, and we have seen continuing to not have new accounts open. the last one we got was earlier this month, they were saying the
decline rates on these accounts was getting better, and all of a sudden not anymore. scarlet: these latest headlines don't help that effort as well. thank you very much. joe: "what'd you miss?" the latest c suite shakeup at bridgewater associates. down,alio is stepping but will remain as cio, while jon rubinstein is leaving the firm after 10 months as co-ceo. let's of different headlines. what is the story? >> jon rubinstein is stepping down after 10 months in his role. ray dalio has been stepping income is stepping out, co-ceo, not sure how public it was that he stepped back into the role, so he has been working on this transition plan for several years.
be a ten-yeard to transition plan, and jon rubinstein was supposed to be this tech, silicon valley guy who was going to show that rich a tech firm ash investment firm, and that did not work out. ofbe there is a question whether bridgewater is the place where you bring an outsider in to the ceo role? scarlet: was that the problem? belize the media twists in the news. he put it on his facebook page and said there was a mutual agreement that john rubinstein was not a cultural fit. joe: here is the quote. excited about this change and expect to remain a professional investor at bridgewater until i die." he is still a co-ceo, and
that has not changed. that has been consistent for a couple of years. joe: let's talk about the culture thing. bridgewater is distinct. the culture is distinct. they make a big deal about it. outsiders don't fit into a well, do they? >> there is a turn over rate that is staggering at bridgewater, 21% in your first year, 10% in your second year, but by the fifth year, it falls to 3%, very low, so they argue that it is a way of weeding out the weak. you will be met with a lot of challenges and may hate it. the wall street journal said there were people crying in the hallways and genetic color to that, but maybe so, maybe not, but the turnover rate proves it is hard. if you make it past the first
couple of years, you are in, and in for a long time. all the folks there as co-ceo have been there for over two decades. joe: would you expect they will continue to try to find some new future generation of management leadership from the outside? is this an ongoing project to find these people? >> they promoted david mccormick to co--ceo. individual if this was looking to leave and now staying. he is now co-ceo with eileen murray. ray dalio did say he is looking for a team, not really one sole leader of bridgewater, so maybe we should think about what is the team going to look like, but certainly, he also said the reason why they did a 10 year plan is so they can do trial and error and keep throwing
reasons to buy, the question is will investors want to stick around. let's bring in caroline hyde. we don't have official details. this is reporting by the wall street journal, $17 a share. how does that compare to the range? >> higher. bloomberg has confirmed this. to $16 was the range. we understand it is concentrated in the $17 to $18 range. the vibration is now close to $24 billion. joe: you are out there in silicon valley, drinking the kool-aid. how important is it for the people you talk to, not even including all the people who will get rich from it, but the ecosystem in general?
>> there is desperation for this to go well. there is a lot of fear that it could dive on the first day of trading. left on enough excess the table for this to trade higher, because who comes out? company, andall app integration platform, $100 million, but what about dropbox, spotify, maybe the third quarter uber,s year many hoping will they ever come to the market? fromuch money is coming the private market, particularly institutional investors. they have not needed to come to the public market. scarlet: except there are some people who want to cash out, and banks are in those rich fees. >> goldman sachs will lead the way. in fact, goldman is winning year
to date in terms of underwriting across the board. this will get them 1% to 3% fees. we have shrinking over all in the equity underwriting revenue. know 2016 was pretty lackluster in terms of ipo in the tech space. they want to run that back up. we also see goldman sachs with the stabilization role, but all banks looking to earn some fees on this and will want to see that trade pop and stay there. joe: i want to go back to uber for a second. they have had so much terrible news. everyone is excited about snap, sigh of relief. uber is huge. cooper is bigger than snap. ofre seem to be a lot
questions about its business. how much anxiety is that causing prime ipoabout this candidate looking so shaky? >> silicon valley loves to hate uber as much as the rest of the world. the way in terms of pr strategy. uber is realizing they have to treat drivers well. we will not be having automated cars for the next five years or so. thatneed to make sure the the demand and supply side of the business are equally weighted. i think there is worried that travis calamity -- people havew hard to work, the ethos of stepping on toes, shouting people down. as long as they are on the ipo trail, people will stick with them, but there is an
interesting tactic, whether they will be paid out in loans. that statement seemed to be a clear apology. scarlet: there are questions about his leadership ability. i bring that up because evan spiegel had come under similar scrutiny, but there is no doubt about his capabilities now, is there? know, and there is the chief strategy officer that fulfilled and strengthened the overall team they have surrounding it, much riding on the presence of evan spiegel. the majority, shareholding control held by two ,ey founders, even if they die we would never want to see that, but that is the extent we have
to see for them to give over control, or if they sell 70% of their holdings. even if evan spiegel went to a tibetan monastery and got out of the business, he would still have control, so there is so much riding on a strong team. travis has to show he has a strong team. he has a good mentor. bill gates, mark zuckerberg, they had lessons to learn. joe: thank you very much. can't wait to see how that snap ipo trades tomorrow. up next, the former chairman of the council on economic advisers tells us how much he thinks trump will be able to get done well in the white house. scarlet: we want to share great function. if you miss conversations, interviews, charts -- you can check it out on tv , charts, bio pages, headlines, and it is
, if they go back-and-forth on the border tax, and they are not able to pass it, and if infrastructure is as suggested contingent on and waiting for those first to bring things to get done and they don't get done, i think ultimately that there are a number of investors who will say, wait a minute. maybe it is not as positive as we wanted. the second thing i will point out is a disproportionate chunk of this increase in market value as you observed is just the financials, and just the banks. i think something like 20% of the increase in the dow was just a goldman sachs for some time. for most of those, i think, i think some of that increase that the financials are up 30% is due to them saying, hey, they will take a shot calls off and we will go back to making money like we were in the go-go days. that part might not go away.
came inanufacturing better than forecast, the pce the flight, 1.9%, close to target. we have financials and assets doing well. if the fed moves in march, which you say is likely, what would be the chances of a fed having to roll back that move later in the year if we don't get fiscal stimulus? >> it is possible. will be interested to see when the minutes come out from this fed discussion, i will be interested to see what the governors are saying about that topic. measure, there is a lot of fiscal uncertainty, because we don't know if it will pass or even the details of what magnitude are they talking about. i don't know that there is that high of a chance that they would
literally have to reverse themselves. my observation of the fed is that they feel like conditions over the last 18-20 four months have been improving at a somewhat steady basis, so they are ok with raising a little bit now, and they would like to keep raising, but that might end up getting put off i think if the come of fiscal measures do not come through. on obamacare, the president talked about credits, which at some republican see as a new entitlement, buying insurance across state lines. how much of this gets agreed-upon within the gop this year? >> i think perhaps very little. leave the nation, not just the democrats, thought through all of those options that they are talking about as the replacement to obamacare before obamacare ever passed, and there are major
.roblems with each of those for certain it would the 2 million's people who got insurance coverage since ,bamacare to lose that coverage so i think there is going to be substantial pushback on to bring different sides within the gop. one side, the people who are up for reelection and who are going out to these town halls and getting there is to do off by people who got insurance and don't want to lose it, they will be hesitant to past a repeal of obamacare unless there is a replacement. and for the other side, there are a group of people why are we talking about replacing anything? why are we talking about tax credits? let's just repeal it and be done , and i do not think that is close to being resolved, so i think we have many miles to go on the prospect of whether they can truly repeal obamacare. austin goolsbee.
blackrockorld'scarlet: cutting annual employee bonuses. black rock's bonuses were reduced by an average of 2% to 4%. the asset management business under pressure. the economy grew at a modest to moderate pace across the u.s., a development which tightens the labor market, but without significant acceleration in wages. that is according to the feds asia book economic report based on collected information. the u.s.t also finds economy near point where economists would consider it for employment. that is your bloomberg business flash. coming up, what you need to know to gear up for tomorrow's trading day. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪
the s&p 500 reaching 2400, record highs for all three major indexes. this, tomorrow, snaps ipo at 10:15. we will be all over it. joe: i will be looking at president trump outlining his -- et on board miss this, sears, abercrombie & fitch, costco, all reporting quarterly results tomorrow. that does it for "what'd you miss?" thank you for watching. joe: have a great evening.
united states for 90 days. a white house official also says trump has delayed the new directive until at least friday. senate has given approval to dr. ben carson, president trump's choice to lead the department of housing and urban development. it was a bipartisan 62-37 vote. the senate confirmed ryan's inky to lead the interior department. roughly 20% of the nation's land is now under the watch of the montana native. aesident trump also chose longtime donor to republican campaigns as ambassador to canada, that according to a person familiar with the mat ter. craft is completing the necessary paperwork.